Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 27 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 27-Jun 29 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 27-Jun 29 2023

             Jun 27       Jun 28       Jun 29
00-03UT       2.33         2.67         2.33     
03-06UT       2.00         2.33         2.00     
06-09UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         2.00     
12-15UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
15-18UT       0.67         2.33         2.00     
18-21UT       3.67         2.00         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 27-Jun 29 2023

              Jun 27  Jun 28  Jun 29
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 26 2023 1622 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 27-Jun 29 2023

              Jun 27        Jun 28        Jun 29
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class flare activity and a slight chance for X-class flare activity
over 27-29 Jun primarily due to Ars 3340 and 3354.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 26 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 26-Jun 28 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 26-Jun 28 2023

             Jun 26       Jun 27       Jun 28
00-03UT       2.67         2.67         3.67     
03-06UT       2.33         3.00         3.67     
06-09UT       2.33         3.67         2.67     
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         2.67     
12-15UT       1.00         2.67         1.00     
15-18UT       1.00         1.67         0.67     
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2023

              Jun 26  Jun 27  Jun 28
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2023

              Jun 26        Jun 27        Jun 28
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 26-28 Jun primarily due to the potential of AR 3340.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 26 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 26-Jun 28 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 26-Jun 28 2023

             Jun 26       Jun 27       Jun 28
00-03UT       2.33         2.67         3.67     
03-06UT       2.67         3.00         3.67     
06-09UT       2.00         3.67         2.67     
09-12UT       2.33         2.67         2.67     
12-15UT       1.00         2.67         1.00     
15-18UT       1.00         1.67         0.67     
18-21UT       2.33         1.67         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2023

              Jun 26  Jun 27  Jun 28
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 26-Jun 28 2023

              Jun 26        Jun 27        Jun 28
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 26-28 Jun.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 25 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 25-Jun 27 2023 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 25-Jun 27 2023

             Jun 25       Jun 26       Jun 27
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    2.00         2.67     
03-06UT       2.33         2.00         3.00     
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         3.67     
09-12UT       1.33         1.00         2.67     
12-15UT       1.33         0.67         2.67     
15-18UT       1.33         0.67         1.67     
18-21UT       1.67         1.00         1.67     
21-00UT       2.00         2.33         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 25-Jun 27 2023

              Jun 25  Jun 26  Jun 27
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 25-Jun 27 2023

              Jun 25        Jun 26        Jun 27
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 25-27 Jun.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jun 24 1230 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jun 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 24-Jun 26 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 24-Jun 26 2023

             Jun 24       Jun 25       Jun 26
00-03UT       1.67         2.33         1.33     
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         1.33     
06-09UT       2.67         2.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.67         1.67         1.67     
12-15UT       3.67         1.33         1.67     
15-18UT       2.33         1.33         1.67     
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         1.33     
21-00UT       2.33         2.33         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2023

              Jun 24  Jun 25  Jun 26
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 24-Jun 26 2023

              Jun 24        Jun 25        Jun 26
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 24-26 Jun.
                        

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