Geomagnetic Storm Forecast

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3-Day Forecast - 2023 Feb 27 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Feb 27 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 27-Mar 01 2023 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 27-Mar 01 2023

             Feb 27       Feb 28       Mar 01
00-03UT       5.67 (G2)    5.67 (G2)    4.00     
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    5.00 (G1)    3.67     
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    4.33         3.00     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         3.00     
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         2.67     
15-18UT       4.33         3.00         2.67     
18-21UT       5.00 (G1)    3.00         2.67     
21-00UT       6.67 (G3)    3.67         3.00     

Rationale: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are likely on 27 Feb, and G2
(Moderate) storms are likely on 28 Feb, due to negative polarity CH HSS
influences and CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2023

              Feb 27  Feb 28  Mar 01
S1 or greater   99%     50%     25%

Rationale: Ongoing S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm conditions are
expected to continue on 27 Feb.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2023

              Feb 27        Feb 28        Mar 01
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 27 Feb-01 Mar.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Feb 26 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Feb 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 26-Feb 28 2023 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 26-Feb 28 2023

             Feb 26       Feb 27       Feb 28
00-03UT       3.33         5.33 (G1)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       2.33         6.00 (G2)    4.33     
06-09UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    4.00     
09-12UT       2.33         4.33         4.00     
12-15UT       2.33         3.67         3.00     
15-18UT       3.33         3.33         3.00     
18-21UT       4.33         3.33         3.00     
21-00UT       5.33 (G1)    3.67         3.33     

Rationale: G1 storms are likely on 26 and 28 Feb, and G2 storms are
likely on 27 Feb, due to CH HSS influences and CME effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 26-Feb 28 2023

              Feb 26  Feb 27  Feb 28
S1 or greater   99%     99%     99%

Rationale: S1 solar radiation storm conditions are in progress.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 25 2023 1944 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 26-Feb 28 2023

              Feb 26        Feb 27        Feb 28
R1-R2           65%           65%           65%
R3 or greater   15%           15%           15%

Rationale: R1-R2 radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3
or greater events, over 26-28 Feb.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Feb 25 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Feb 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 25-Feb 27 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 25-Feb 27 2023

             Feb 25       Feb 26       Feb 27
00-03UT       2.67         2.33         2.00     
03-06UT       2.67         2.00         2.00     
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         2.33     
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         2.67     
12-15UT       1.00         2.00         2.67     
15-18UT       1.00         2.00         3.00     
18-21UT       2.00         2.00         2.67     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         3.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2023

              Feb 25  Feb 26  Feb 27
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.


C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 24 2023 2030 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2023

              Feb 25        Feb 26        Feb 27
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: M-class flare events are likely over 25-27 Feb, with a slight
chance for X-class events.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Feb 24 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Feb 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 24-Feb 26 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 24-Feb 26 2023

             Feb 24       Feb 25       Feb 26
00-03UT       4.00         2.67         2.67     
03-06UT       3.33         2.33         1.67     
06-09UT       2.67         2.67         2.33     
09-12UT       2.00         2.33         2.00     
12-15UT       1.67         2.00         2.00     
15-18UT       1.67         2.33         3.33     
18-21UT       2.33         2.67         3.67     
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         4.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2023

              Feb 24  Feb 25  Feb 26
S1 or greater   10%     10%     15%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 23 2023 0614 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2023

              Feb 24        Feb 25        Feb 26
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: There is an increased likelihood of R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
and a slight chance of an R3 (Strong) radio blackout event on 24-26 Feb.
The primary driver for the increased probabilities is the growth and
magnetic complexity increase in Region 3234.
                        

3-Day Forecast - 2023 Feb 23 0030 UTC

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Feb 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 23-Feb 25 2023 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 23-Feb 25 2023

             Feb 23       Feb 24       Feb 25
00-03UT       2.67         2.00         2.67     
03-06UT       2.33         1.67         2.33     
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         2.67     
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.00     
15-18UT       1.67         2.00         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         2.67     
21-00UT       2.33         2.67         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2023

              Feb 23  Feb 24  Feb 25
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 22 2023 1350 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 23-Feb 25 2023

              Feb 23        Feb 24        Feb 25
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackout events on 23-25 Feb due primarily
to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 3234, 3229 and 3230.
                        

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