3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 21 1230 UTC
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 21-Jul 23 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 21-Jul 23 2023
Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23
00-03UT 2.67 3.00 3.33
03-06UT 3.33 2.33 3.00
06-09UT 2.33 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 2.00 2.00 1.67
12-15UT 3.67 1.67 1.33
15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 1.33
18-21UT 3.67 3.33 1.33
21-00UT 2.67 3.67 1.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 21 Jul
due to anticipated CME influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 21-Jul 23 2023
Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23
S1 or greater 25% 15% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 21-Jul 23 2023
Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul 23
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 21-23 Jul.
3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 20 1230 UTC
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 20-Jul 22 2023 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 20-Jul 22 2023
Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22
00-03UT 1.00 4.33 3.00
03-06UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 2.33
06-09UT 0.67 3.67 3.00
09-12UT 1.33 3.67 2.00
12-15UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 2.33
18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 2.67 3.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 20-21
Jul due to possible arrival of two CMEs from 17 and 18 Jul.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 20-Jul 22 2023
Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22
S1 or greater 85% 35% 10%
Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are possible on
20-21 Jul as the 10 MeV flux is expected to remain elevated.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 19 2023 1725 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 20-Jul 22 2023
Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22
R1-R2 50% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 15% 10% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
all three days and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts
on 20-21 Jul.
3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 19 1230 UTC
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 19-Jul 21 2023 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 19-Jul 21 2023
Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21
00-03UT 1.33 2.00 4.33
03-06UT 1.33 1.67 4.33
06-09UT 1.33 2.00 3.67
09-12UT 1.33 3.33 3.67
12-15UT 1.67 4.33 3.33
15-18UT 2.00 5.00 (G1) 2.33
18-21UT 2.67 5.33 (G1) 3.00
21-00UT 1.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 20 Jul due to
possible CME influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 19-Jul 21 2023
Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21
S1 or greater 99% 70% 50%
Rationale: As of this report, 10 MeV protons are continuing to steadily
decrease but an S1 (Minor) storm remains in progress. This activity was
associated with a long-duration M5 flare.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 18 2023 2027 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 19-Jul 21 2023
Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul 21
R1-R2 55% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 15%
Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a likelihood of
M-class flares (R1-R2) and slight chance of an X-class (R3-Strong) event
19 Jul. A slight decrease to lower solar activity, with a chance of
M-class flares and continuing slight chance of X-class flares exists on
20-21 Jul. Primary contributors to this forecast are Regions 3372, 3373,
and
3376.
3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 18 1230 UTC
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 18-Jul 20 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 18-Jul 20 2023
Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 2.33
03-06UT 3.00 1.67 2.67
06-09UT 2.33 2.67 2.33
09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.33
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 2.00
15-18UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
18-21UT 2.33 3.67 2.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels expected on 18
Jul due to continuing disturbances and possible arrival of a close
proximity or glancing blow CME from 15 Jul.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2023
Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
S1 or greater 99% 65% 20%
Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected on
18 Jul due to the M5 flare from Region 3363. Proton levels are expected
to decrease steadily through 19-20 Jul.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 18 2023 0006 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2023
Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
R1-R2 50% 50% 45%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 15%
Rationale: There is a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate)
and a slight chance of X-class (R3; Strong) events due to the latest
decreased flare and activity trends, along with the departure of Region
3363 over the next 1-2 days.
3-Day Forecast - 2023 Jul 17 1230 UTC
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Jul 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 17-Jul 19 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 17-Jul 19 2023
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19
00-03UT 3.00 4.67 (G1) 2.00
03-06UT 2.00 4.67 (G1) 1.67
06-09UT 4.33 4.67 (G1) 2.67
09-12UT 4.33 4.33 2.67
12-15UT 2.67 4.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.67 3.00 3.00
18-21UT 4.33 2.00 3.67
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 2.33 2.67
Rationale: Continuing CME influences are expected to result in unsettled
to G1 (Minor) levels on 17-18 Jul with a chance for G2 (Moderate).
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 17-Jul 19 2023
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19
S1 or greater 25% 20% 10%
Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain
mildly enhanced, with a chance of S1 levels on 17 Jul due primarily to
the recent activity escalation in Region 3363 and its favorable
location. Proton flux is expected to continue at background on 18-19
Jul, with a slight chance of a S1 storm as Region 3363 begins to rotate
to and beyond the west limb.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 16 2023 1746 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 17-Jul 19 2023
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19
R1-R2 60% 60% 50%
R3 or greater 25% 25% 15%
Rationale: The combined flare probabilities of mainly Regions 3363,
3372, and 3373 have led to a forecast of solar activity likely being
moderate - with C-class X-ray flux expected to continue as background
levels and a likelihood of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) with a
chance of an X-class (R3; Strong) event on 17-18 Jul. Solar activity is
expected to be low, with a chance of M-class flares and slight chance of
X-class flares on 19 Jul.
Latest Astronomy Alerts
Coronal Mass Ejection Alerts
Space Weather Alerts
K04A 2025-05-09 19:57:19.893
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2556 Issue Time: 2025 May 09 1957 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2025 May 09 1956 UTC Synoptic Period: 1800-2100… Read MoreGeo Magnetic Storm Alerts
3-Day Forecast - 2025 May 09 1230 UTC
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 May 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast… Read MoreSolar Flare Alerts
2025-05-08T10:21:00-FLR-001
- Begins: 05/08/2025 10:21:00
- Ends: 05/08/2025 10:28:00
- Class: C1.6
Privacy Policy
Revised: November 23rd, 2021
Thank you for choosing to be part of my website at https://www.stargazers.us (“Company”, “I”, “me”, “mine”). We are committed to protecting your personal information and your right to privacy. If you have any questions or concerns about this privacy notice, or our practices with regards to your personal information, please contact Kevin at me@kpirnie.com.
When you visit our website https://www.stargazers.us (the “Website”), and more generally, use any of our services (the “Services”, which include the Website), we appreciate that you are trusting us with your personal information. We take your privacy very seriously. In this privacy notice, we seek to explain to you in the clearest way possible what information we collect, how we use it and what rights you have in relation to it. We hope you take some time to read through it carefully, as it is important. If there are any terms in this privacy notice that you do not agree with, please discontinue use of our Services immediately.
This privacy notice applies to all information collected through our Services (which, as described above, includes our Website), as well as, any related services, sales, marketing or events.
Please read this privacy notice carefully as it will help you understand what we do with the information that we collect.
1. WHAT INFORMATION DO WE COLLECT?
Information automatically collected
In Short: Some information – such as your Internet Protocol (IP) address, location, and/or browser and device characteristics – is collected automatically when you visit our Website.
We automatically collect certain information when you visit, use or navigate the Website. This information does not reveal your specific identity (like your name or contact information) but may include device and usage information, such as your IP address, browser and device characteristics, operating system, language preferences, referring URLs, device name, country, location, information about how and when you use our Website and other technical information. This information is primarily needed to location specific data to you, maintain the security and operation of our Website, and for our internal analytics and reporting purposes.
Like many businesses, we also collect information through cookies and similar technologies.
The information We collect includes:
Log and Usage Data. Log and usage data is service-related, diagnostic, usage and performance information our servers automatically collect when you access or use our Website and which we record in log files. Depending on how you interact with us, this log data may include your IP address, device information, browser type and settings and information about your activity in the Website (such as the date/time stamps associated with your usage, pages and files viewed, searches and other actions you take such as which features you use), device event information (such as system activity, error reports (sometimes called ‘crash dumps’) and hardware settings).
Device Data. We collect device data such as information about your computer, phone, tablet or other device you use to access the Website. Depending on the device used, this device data may include information such as your IP address (or proxy server), device and application identification numbers, location, browser type, hardware model Internet service provider and/or mobile carrier, operating system and system configuration information.
Location Data. We collect location data such as information about your device’s location, which can be either precise or imprecise. How much information we collect depends on the type and settings of the device you use to access the Website and will require your acceptance. For example, we may use GPS and other technologies to collect geolocation data that tells me your current location (based on your IP address). You can opt out of allowing me to collect this information either by refusing access to the information or by disabling your Location setting on your device. Note however, if you choose to opt out, you may not be able to use certain aspects of the Services.
2. HOW DO WE USE YOUR INFORMATION?
In Short: We process your information for purposes of local data display to you, based on legitimate business interests, the fulfillment of my contract with you, compliance with my legal obligations, and/or your consent.
We use personal information collected via my Website for a variety of business purposes described below. We process your personal information for these purposes in reliance on providing you with local relevant data, my legitimate business interests, in order to enter into or perform a contract with you, with your consent, and/or for compliance with my legal obligations. We indicate the specific processing grounds we rely on next to each purpose listed below.
Local relevant data. We use your location in order to provide you with accurate weather forecasts, seeing conditions, moon and sun information, and other general astronomy based information.
For other business purposes. We may use your information for other business purposes, such as data analysis, identifying usage trends, determining the effectiveness of our promotional campaigns and to evaluate and improve my Website, products, marketing and your experience. We may use and store this information in aggregated and anonymized form so that it is not associated with individual end users and does not include personal information. We will not use identifiable personal information without your consent.
3. WILL YOUR INFORMATION BE SHARED WITH ANYONE?
In Short: We only share information with your consent, to comply with laws, to provide you with services, to protect your rights, or to fulfill business obligations.
4. DO WE USE COOKIES AND OTHER TRACKING TECHNOLOGIES?
In Short: We may use cookies and other tracking technologies to collect and store your information.
We may use cookies and similar tracking technologies (like web beacons and pixels) to access or store information. We do not have a cookie notice available at this time, and allowing us to store cookies is requried to utilize the data represented in this Website.
5. IS YOUR INFORMATION TRANSFERRED INTERNATIONALLY?
In Short: We may transfer, store, and process your information in countries other than your own.
Our servers are located in the United States of America, unless otherwise requested by our clients. If you are accessing our Website from outside, please be aware that your information may be transferred to, stored, and processed by us in my facilities and by those third parties with whom we may share your personal information (see “WILL YOUR INFORMATION BE SHARED WITH ANYONE?” above), in and other countries.
If you are a resident in the European Economic Area, then these countries may not necessarily have data protection laws or other similar laws as comprehensive as those in your country. We will however take all necessary measures to protect your personal information in accordance with this privacy notice and applicable law.
6. HOW LONG DO WE KEEP YOUR INFORMATION?
In Short: We keep your information for as long as necessary to fulfill the purposes outlined in this privacy notice unless otherwise required by law.
We will only keep your personal information for as long as it is necessary for the purposes set out in this privacy notice, unless a longer retention period is required or permitted by law (such as tax, accounting or other legal requirements). No purpose in this notice will require me keeping your personal information for longer than 6 months.
When we have no ongoing legitimate business need to process your personal information, we will either delete or anonymize such information, or, if this is not possible (for example, because your personal information has been stored in backup archives), then we will securely store your personal information and isolate it from any further processing until deletion is possible.
7. HOW DO WE KEEP YOUR INFORMATION SAFE?
In Short: We aim to protect your personal information through a system of organizational and technical security measures.
We have implemented appropriate technical and organizational security measures designed to protect the security of any personal information we process. However, despite our safeguards and efforts to secure your information, no electronic transmission over the Internet or information storage technology can be guaranteed to be 100% secure, so we cannot promise or guarantee that hackers, cybercriminals, or other unauthorized third parties will not be able to defeat our security, and improperly collect, access, steal, or modify your information. Although we will do our best to protect your personal information, transmission of personal information to and from our Website is at your own risk. You should only access the Website within a secure environment.
8. DO WE COLLECT INFORMATION FROM MINORS?
In Short: We do not knowingly collect data from or market to children under 18 years of age.
We do not knowingly solicit data from or market to children under 18 years of age. By using the Website, you represent that you are at least 18 or that you are the parent or guardian of such a minor and consent to such minor dependent’s use of the Website. If we learn that personal information from users less than 18 years of age has been collected, we will deactivate the account and take reasonable measures to promptly delete such data from my records. If you become aware of any data we may have collected from children under age 18, please contact me at .
9. WHAT ARE YOUR PRIVACY RIGHTS?
In Short: You may review, change, or terminate your account at any time.
If you are a resident in the European Economic Area and you believe we am unlawfully processing your personal information, you also have the right to complain to your local data protection supervisory authority. You can find their contact details here: http://ec.europa.eu/justice/data-protection/bodies/authorities/index_en.htm.
If you are a resident in Switzerland, the contact details for the data protection authorities are available here: http://ec.europa.eu/justice/data-protection/bodies/authorities/index_en.htm.
Cookies and similar technologies: Most Web browsers are set to accept cookies by default. If you prefer, you can usually choose to set your browser to remove cookies and to reject cookies. If you choose to remove cookies or reject cookies, this could affect certain features or services of my Website.
10. CONTROLS FOR DO-NOT-TRACK FEATURES
Most web browsers and some mobile operating systems and mobile applications include a Do-Not-Track (“DNT”) feature or setting you can activate to signal your privacy preference not to have data about your online browsing activities monitored and collected. At this stage no uniform technology standard for recognizing and implementing DNT signals has been finalized. As such, we do not currently respond to DNT browser signals or any other mechanism that automatically communicates your choice not to be tracked online. If a standard for online tracking is adopted that we must follow in the future, we will inform you about that practice in a revised version of this privacy notice.
11. DO CALIFORNIA RESIDENTS HAVE SPECIFIC PRIVACY RIGHTS?
In Short: Yes, if you are a resident of California, you are granted specific rights regarding access to your personal information.
California Civil Code Section 1798.83, also known as the “Shine The Light” law, permits our users who are California residents to request and obtain from me, once a year and free of charge, information about categories of personal information (if any) we disclosed to third parties for direct marketing purposes and the names and addresses of all third parties with which we shared personal information in the immediately preceding calendar year. If you are a California resident and would like to make such a request, please submit your request in writing to me using the contact information provided below.
If you are under 18 years of age, reside in California, and have a registered account with the Website, you have the right to request removal of unwanted data that you publicly post on the Website. To request removal of such data, please contact us using the contact information provided below, and include the email address associated with your account and a statement that you reside in California. We will make sure the data is not publicly displayed on the Website, but please be aware that the data may not be completely or comprehensively removed from all our systems (e.g. backups, etc.).
12. DO WE MAKE UPDATES TO THIS NOTICE?
In Short: Yes, we will update this notice as necessary to stay compliant with relevant laws.
We may update this privacy notice from time to time. The updated version will be indicated by an updated “Revised” date and the updated version will be effective as soon as it is accessible. If we make material changes to this privacy notice, we may notify you either by prominently posting a notice of such changes or by directly sending you a notification. We encourage you to review this privacy notice frequently to be informed of how we are protecting your information.
13. HOW CAN YOU CONTACT US ABOUT THIS NOTICE?
If you have questions or comments about this notice, you may email Kevin at me@kpirnie.com or by post to:
Kevin C. Pirnie
22 Orlando St.
Feeding Hills, MA 01030
United States of America
14. HOW CAN YOU REVIEW, UPDATE, OR DELETE THE DATA WE COLLECT FROM YOU?
Based on the applicable laws of your country, you may have the right to request access to the personal information we collect from you, change that information, or delete it in some circumstances. To request to review, update, or delete your personal information, you may email Kevin at me@kpirnie.com or by post to:
Kevin C. Pirnie
22 Orlando St.
Feeding Hills, MA 01030
United States of America